Weekly Strategist

Weekly Market Wrap-up:

In the last week, the Nifty Futures open interest (OI) increased by 6.99 percent (from 648780 contracts to 694114 contracts) with an decrease in price of 2.03 percent (from 3799.85 to 3722.55). The Nifty Call OI increased by 41.48 percent from 199528 contracts to To 282298 contracts and the Nifty Put OI increased by 34.35 percent from 182382
contracts to 245022 contracts. The Total open interest of Nifty was up by 18.51 percent from 1030690 contracts to 1221434 contracts. The net OI of Nifty (Future + Call - Put) was up by 9.83 percent i.e. from 665926 contracts to 731390 contracts. The Nifty PCR (OI) has shown a significant change from 0.91 to 0.82. The Nifty basis over the week
changed from (22) to (30) points. In the Current week, we maintain a sideways movement view on the market.

Nifty Perspective
Nifty futures on weekly basis decreased by 2.03 percent to close around 3722.50. Open interests in Nifty future has increased from 648780 contracts to 694114 with index closing lower, week on week basis around 3752. The rise in OI with fall in price indicates that lot of short positions being built up in the market as market saw a resistance around 3800 levels where bears made short positions forcing bulls to liquidate their positions aggressively .Market may show strength only if it sustains above 3800 levels where we may see fresh buying happening in the market.. FII's figures were negative in the market during the last day to the tune of 497 crs . The other indicators in derivatives market i.e. PCR_OI indicating continuous weakness as coming down from 0.91 to 0.86. The implied volatility is around 25 to 30 levels which is again on higher side indicating volatile trading sessions ahead whereas HV is in a range of 38 to 41 indicating sharp movement may come in the market. One should hedge their positions till the trend doesn't become clear and should trade with strict stop
losses.



RELIANCE
RELIANCE gained OI to the tune of 6.93% with a fall in price of 0.83% indicating both
bulls and bears are aggressive in this counter indicating sharp movement may be
expected in this counter as lot of positions are pending in this counter .. If the counter breaches 1350 levels we may see fresh selling in the counter and longs liquidating their positions aggressively. The counter may show real strength once it crosses 1380 levels where we may see further built up of long positions and fresh money coming in the counter. Meanwhile the counter has support around 1350 and resistance around 1380.

TATASTEEL
Open interest in TATASTEEL has gone down by 18.13% with 3.52% rise in price. The
fall in OI indicates that short covered their positions as market recovered. On the last day of the week OI lost with prices rising indicating short covering seen in the counter which shows strength in the counter. The counter may come under bear grip if it goes below 425 levels where we may see fresh short built up and heavy liquidation of long positions. The counter has crossed 460 levels so we expect some fresh money may come in the counter and it may show further strength. Meanwhile the counter has
support around 430 and resistance around 490 levels.


SATYAMCOMP
SATYAMCOMP gained OI to the tune of 19.85% with a fall in price of 3.15% indicating
shorts positions being built up in the counter indicating weakness in the counter. If the counter breaches 440 levels we may see fresh selling in the counter and longs
liquidating their positions aggressively. The counter may show real strength once it
crosses 465 levels where we may see further built up of long positions and fresh money coming in the counter. Meanwhile the counter has support around 440 and resistance around 465.

HINDLEVER
HINDLEVER gained OI to the tune of 16.43% with a fall in price of 2.53% indicating
shorts positions being built up in the counter indicating weakness in the counter. If the counter breaches 195 levels we may see fresh selling in the counter and longs
liquidating their positions aggressively. The counter may show real strength once it
crosses 207 levels where we may see further built up of long positions and fresh money coming in the counter. Meanwhile the counter has support around 193 and resistance around 207.


TATAMOTORS
TATAMOTORS gained OI to the tune of 14.50% with a fall in price of 5.78% indicating
shorts positions being built up in the counter indicating weakness in the counter. If the counter breaches 670 levels we may see fresh selling in the counter and longs
liquidating their positions aggressively. The counter may show real strength once it
crosses 710 levels where we may see further built up of long positions and fresh money coming in the counter. Meanwhile the counter has support around 670 and resistance around 700.

Daily Technical Note

Nifty and Sensex have exhibited a bullish candlestick.

Technically, one may use the level of 3550 (Nifty) and 12300 (Sensex) as the stop loss level.

Nifty faces resistance at 3820 and Sensex at 12825.

BSE Smallcap and BSE Midcap exhibited a candlestick with a small real body.

CNX IT has gained ground.

In the Punter's zone we have a BUY in Ranbaxy & Gujrat Ambuja with a SELL in S.B.I.

In the Technical call section, we have a BUY in M&M & Divi;s Lab with a SELL in TCS.

Daily Strategist

The NIFTY futures saw a drop in OI 2.85% with prices positive indicating that as market opened high and not ready to go below 3600 levels weak shorts covered their positions and forced price to remain above 3650 levels. We feel that till the market doesn't go below 3600 levels we may not see aggressive short positions in the nifty futures and longs liquidating their positions. The FIIs bought index futures to the tune of 892 crs versus last day's sale of 1432 crs indicating short covering by them whereas heavy buyers in index options indicating hedged positions built up by them. The PCR has come up form 0.82 to 0.87 levels indicating some buying support emerging in the market. The volatility has come down from 29.90 to 28.65 levels indicating some buying support may emerge at lower levels in the market.

Among the Big guns, ONGC saw rise in OI to the tune of 4.07% with prices positive to the tune of 2.14% indicating built up of long positions aggressively indicating strength in the counter whereas RELIANCE saw drop of OI to the tune of 0.35 % with prices positive indicating that shorts covered their positions and fresh positions built up in the counter indicating strength in the counter.

In the TECH front, INFOSYSTCH saw fall of OI with rise in prices indicating lot of short covering is seen in this counter with no fresh buying emerging indicating rally may exhaust once short covering ends .TCS ,SATYAMCOMP& WIPRO saw fresh built up of long positions indicating strength may remain in these counters.

In the BANKING counters, SBIN, ICICIBANK saw rise in OI with prices almost flat indicating that both bulls and bears were aggressive in these counters indicating that bears were aggressive in these counter though market recovered indicating weakness in these counters.

In the metal pack TATASTEEL, Saw fall in OI with price positive indicating shorts covering in their positions in the counter SAIL saw fresh built up in OI with rise in price indicating fresh buying emerging in the counter indicating further strength in the counter. HINDALCO&NALCO saw fresh built up in long positions indicating strength in the counter whereas STER saw built up of huge OI with prices flat to negative indicating sharp movement is expected in this counter.

Considering the overall scenario and the markets behavior the market may show some volatility before taking any sharp and directional movement .If it remains below 3600 levels we may see fresh short positions being built up in the market. Traders are advised not to go aggressively short on the market unless important support level of 3600 is breached and any position taken today should be with strict stop losses to be adhered too.

Market Outlook (Medium Term View)

In a knee-jerk reaction to the last week's RBI announcement on interest rate hike, Indian major indices started the session with a downward gap. Market sentiments were unable to recover as influence of the interest rate hike on corporate earnings spread across the investor community and both the major indices closed in the red with a loss of 4.7 and 4.9 percent for both Sensex and Nifty respectively (second highest single day fall after the meltdown in May last year. The benchmark broader markets in too followed their frontline counterpart with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices closing down with a loss of 3.3 and 2.7 percent respectively. Sentiments reading slipped further in the red with the broader market advance to decline ratio at 1:2, while all the Sensex stocks closed in the red. Depressed sentiments along with ambiguity in the outlook for the market in near term lead to drop in volume in the
cash segment with both BSE and NSE combined turnover at Rs.9700cr.

On the institutional front Foreign Institutional Investor turned net buyers with a strong inflow of Rs.840cr on the last trading day of March as against a net outflow of Rs.359cr on the previous trading session. Domestic mutual funds on the contrary continued on structured selling spree with a net outflow of Rs.84cr as against a net outflow of Rs.60cr on the previous trading session. coming back to the outlook for the days session the strong bearish sentiments prevailing in yesterday's session is expected to continue today also on the back of lack of conviction and suspected corporate profitability being impacted negatively.

Fresh buying interest is expected with a vengeance only around the start of the fourth quarter results announcement expected to start from Infosys announcement on the 13th of April. We recommend conservation of resources and a wait and watch approach for retail investor, while should restrain from any fresh aggressive long or short positions in the extreme near term. Major indices are expected to show a bounce back but the current momentum from yesterday session needs to be reduced before we could expect for the same. Volume and Open Interest would be the major indicators to watch out for catch any early signs of a slowdown and later a turnaround in the extreme near term.